With an AA- rating with a stable outlook, Navarre obtains a rating that places it two notches above Spain as a whole, which currently stands at A with a stable outlook. In its report, the rating agency justifies its diagnosis on the credit characteristics of Navarre, which make it more resilient than the rest of Spain in a crisis scenario. It also values the efforts of the regional government to gradually reduce debt with strong cash flow levels.
Standard and Poor’s highlights the importance of Navarre’s own fiscal capacity, which means that it can collect most taxes, of which it then transfers part to the central government, in compensation for the services it provides. This capacity at the disposal of the Comunidad Foral results in the establishment of a bilateral relationship with the central government and differentiated treatment compared to other regions of the state. Among other issues, S&P also highlights the territory’s ability to negotiate its debt and deficit targets bilaterally with the central government.
“The economy of Navarre is richer, more competitive and more export-oriented than that of Spain”, the agency points out in its report. Other ‘big numbers’ to which it refers are Navarre’s GDP per capita “approximately 120 % of the Spanish average at the end of 2022″; or the weight of industry (30.8 % of the region’s added value compared to 17.4 % in the rest of Spain)”. “This makes its economy more resistant to external shocks”, he adds.
HIGHER GROWTH FOR 2023 AND FORECASTS FOR THE FUTURE
Standard and Poor’s analysis shows a stronger than expected budgetary recovery in Navarre, with a surplus over current revenues of 5.3% in 2023. For the period 2024-2026, the rating agency predicts that the region will continue to obtain good budgetary results, although with a reduction in the surplus due to the slowdown in economic growth, which will be passed on to tax collection.
On the other hand, they stress that the debt is low, especially when compared with the rest of the Autonomous Regions, and that it is also being reduced and will continue to fall in the period 2024-2026. They confirm that, despite the increase in interest rates, the region’s interest payments have not been affected by the aforementioned debt reduction.
Another positive point is the high cash flow levels as a result of the surpluses obtained and the European Funds. They estimate that the treasury could decrease due to the execution of expenditure with European funds, but that it will continue to remain at high levels.
Finally, they highlight the financial team’s strong commitment to fiscal consolidation, as well as prudence in debt and cash management decisions.
Source: navarra.es